Map: Salton Sea earthquake swarm continues, raises probability of large quake

Earthquakes are continuing in the area of California’s Salton Sea, and the U.S. Geological Survey says the event “significantly” raises the probability of a large quake in the region.

The swarm began around 8:30 a.m. Monday, and, within 24 hours, 26 quakes larger than 2.5 magnitude had been recorded. The largest has been 4.6.

The epicenter is under the Salton Sea lakebed in Imperial County, about 8 miles from the southern end of the San Andreas Fault, the USGS said in a news release Monday.

It said the area saw similar swarms in 2001, 2009 and 2016.

The USGS release detailed three scenarios for the following week:

  • Scenario One (about 80% chance):  Earthquakes continue but none will be larger than magnitude 5.4, and the rate will decrease over the course of the week.
  • Scenario Two (about 19% chance): An earthquake of magnitude 5.5 to 6.9 could occur within the next  seven  days.
  • Scenario Three (about 1% chance):  An earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher could occur within the next seven days.

The agency said the last earthquake of 7+ on the southernmost section of the San Andreas Fault was more than 300 years ago.

“In a typical week,” it said, “there is approximately a 1-in-10,000 chance of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the southernmost San Andreas Fault.  That probability is significantly elevated while swarm activity remains high.”

دیدگاهتان را بنویسید